Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.838596e-05 0.000093 0.000109 0.000128 0.000148 0.000170 0.000195
2025-02-02 6.007603e-05 0.000080 0.000102 0.000130 0.000162 0.000198 0.000241
2025-02-09 4.854578e-05 0.000070 0.000096 0.000128 0.000168 0.000213 0.000269
2025-02-16 4.216571e-05 0.000065 0.000095 0.000133 0.000181 0.000238 0.000309
2025-02-23 3.607916e-05 0.000060 0.000092 0.000134 0.000188 0.000254 0.000338
2025-03-02 2.875512e-05 0.000052 0.000084 0.000129 0.000188 0.000261 0.000355
2025-03-09 2.361185e-05 0.000046 0.000079 0.000126 0.000190 0.000269 0.000374
2025-03-16 1.991942e-05 0.000042 0.000076 0.000125 0.000194 0.000281 0.000397
2025-03-23 1.728441e-05 0.000039 0.000074 0.000126 0.000200 0.000295 0.000423
2025-03-30 1.450902e-05 0.000036 0.000071 0.000125 0.000203 0.000305 0.000444
2025-04-06 1.175024e-05 0.000032 0.000066 0.000122 0.000203 0.000311 0.000459
2025-04-13 1.025965e-05 0.000030 0.000065 0.000123 0.000209 0.000325 0.000486
2025-04-20 7.620913e-06 0.000026 0.000060 0.000118 0.000207 0.000328 0.000499
2025-04-27 6.309152e-06 0.000024 0.000058 0.000119 0.000213 0.000344 0.000530
2025-05-04 4.984881e-06 0.000021 0.000056 0.000118 0.000217 0.000355 0.000554
2025-05-11 4.430525e-06 0.000021 0.000056 0.000122 0.000228 0.000377 0.000593
2025-05-18 3.657712e-06 0.000019 0.000055 0.000124 0.000234 0.000393 0.000623
2025-05-25 2.543544e-06 0.000017 0.000051 0.000119 0.000231 0.000395 0.000635
2025-06-01 1.827265e-06 0.000014 0.000048 0.000116 0.000231 0.000401 0.000653
2025-06-08 1.361726e-06 0.000013 0.000046 0.000115 0.000234 0.000412 0.000677
2025-06-15 1.061146e-06 0.000012 0.000045 0.000116 0.000240 0.000426 0.000706
2025-06-22 7.455085e-07 0.000011 0.000043 0.000115 0.000242 0.000436 0.000728
2025-06-29 4.601204e-07 0.000009 0.000040 0.000112 0.000241 0.000440 0.000743